SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

S&P 500 Rallies As U.S. Dollar Pulls Back Towards Weekly Lows

Key Insights
The strong pullback in the U.S. dollar provided significant support to stocks.
Treasury yields have pulled back after touching new highs, which served as an additional positive catalyst for S&P 500.
A move above 3730 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 3760.
Advertisement

Pfizer Rallies After Announcing A Huge Price Hike For Its COVID-19 Vaccines
S&P 500 is currently trying to settle above 3730 as traders’ appetite for risk is growing. The U.S. dollar has recently gained strong downside momentum as the BoJ intervened to stop the rally in USD/JPY. Weaker U.S. dollar is bullish for stocks as it increases profits of multinational companies and makes U.S. equities cheaper for foreign investors.

The leading oil services company Schlumberger is up by 9% after beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Schlumberger’s peers Baker Hughes and Halliburton have also enjoyed strong support today.

Vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna gained strong upside momentum after Pfizer announced that it will raise the price of its coronavirus vaccine to $110 – $130 per shot.

Biggest losers today include Verizon and Twitter. Verizon is down by 5% despite beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Subscriber numbers missed estimates, and traders pushed the stock to multi-year lows.

Twitter stock moved towards the $50 level as the U.S. may conduct a security review of Musk’s purchase of the company.

From a big picture point of view, today’s rebound is broad, and most market segments are moving higher. Treasury yields have started to move lower after testing new highs, providing additional support to S&P 500. It looks that some traders are ready to bet that Fed will be less hawkish than previously expected.

S&P 500 Tests Resistance At 3730

S&P 500 has recently managed to get above the 20 EMA and is trying to settle above the resistance at 3730. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If S&P 500 manages to settle above 3730, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3760. A successful test of this level will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance at October highs at 3805. The 50 EMA is located in the nearby, so S&P 500 will likely face strong resistance above the 3800 level.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 3700 will likely serve as the first support level for S&P 500. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will move towards the next support level at 3675. A move below 3675 will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3640.

Basics on Online Business

It time for the search of real online business! Many people claim that its easy to make money online if you follow the so called proven system. There are actually no statistics of any proven system that we could decide on. It is almost a chain of reactions that takes place and it circulates within the Internet world from people to people.But, believe that making money online is though not easy, but a possible one. When we plan to start a business on online with or without investment, we definitely start from somewhere. There are no automated systems that could generate $$$$ with out having to spend time or energy.We don’t have to spend for any marketing in the Internet, but spending money sometimes may increase our income.If we feel that we are not going to spend for this, then we are planning for a long term target and we will have to rely only on our hard work and unlimited time.There will be several failures and disappointment doing business online. We may feel that nothing is reliable, the process is too complicated, each one is linked with another so it goes on and on, never ending!! But remember that if a person tells that he is making profit means that he is making profit. We read his column somewhere in the web that itself is a profit of success to him. Hence always remember that success is following us when we fail.Marketing is the ultimate aim of Internet business. What ever business we do, we should have customers, clients, readers, commentators etc, We need people to visit our business, express their opinion, add suggestions on further improvement etc. So, attracting people is the main task of marketing.We may have to adapt several methods and techniques by trial and error method as all standard marketing practise may not yield the same positive results each time.There are some advantages as well as disadvantages of starting online business. First let us see the advantages.Opportunities are everywhere in the Internet world. Since the reach of the Internet is far beyond our imagination, this can bring audience from anywhere in the world. The Internet network and the viewers are ever growing so there are no bound for the business limitations. We can work on our own time, flexible working hours and at leisure. We can spend more time on other activities as the Internet business once established would give you lot of free time. Any online training, research or studies is much cheaper compared to the conventional ones, most of the references are available free of cost. It is indeed thrilling to surf and work online as we will be stunned to see the scope for so many businesses on line. We can start business with very low capital and also chances of multiple stream of income at the same time.The disadvantages are initially we will have to spend too much time to know, understand and establish what we really want to do. There are lots of research work needed. Internet philosophy is far beyond our understanding the reason that what is hot topic today may not even be talked tomorrow. So we should always be ready to accept and adapt to regular changes. Too many HYPE in the Internet marketing may mislead us in selecting our business and going right way. Selecting Internet business would not yield overnight profit as we dream of. Be practical and accept the fact that our web page one in billion and chances of people visiting and business is also in the same probability. There are more chances of jumping from one opportunity to another and that will definitely not help us to grow in the Internet business.Well, there is a question how much we can earn a day in Internet business? It all depends on our adaptability, skills, ability to learn, hard work and intelligence. It may take a lot of time initially to start earning through Internet business, there will be a quite lot of testing times before we enter into the right one. All depends on how we sell ourselves in the world of Internet business. Marketing, as i mentioned earlier, is a vital aspect of the business, We should select the right ways of marketing. There are some faster ways of marketing also, but that may not always suit our business.More importantly we as the online business owner need to be aware of spam, the practise of sending unsolicited, untargeted mass commercial messages. There are some serious consequences of spamming, including suspension or termination by our web host, affiliate programs etc. as spamming is a very poor business practise.There are plenty of legitimate ways available to market our business instead of spammingShould we spend invest money for starting online business? We may or may not spend and that depends totally on how we want to go about marketing our business. There are quite a lot of ways to start and continue online business free of cost. The main part of expenditure is for marketing. If we start the online business as a writer, then, the cost of marketing is less compared to other online business. As a writer we only need to search the right publishing sites that pays for our articles. These are available in the free web directories, we can find through search engines etc.There are some paid membership sites also that saves lot of our time rather than going to the web directories to search for. What we can earn by writing articles again depends on the selection of topic, method of writing, how quick we are and how relevant the subject is.There are several other online businesses that need to bring in the traffic to our website in order to generate revenue. Many sites claim that they can get us loads of traffic, but always prefer to get the targeted traffic that would benefit out site and our business.